How do you do Jiraiya?

This matter have disturb me for some time. You know, when Masashi suddenly throws the story of Jiraiya infiltrating Rain Hidden Village / Amagakure in Naruto Manga, I really thought that Masashi was just strolling some time while he thinks about what to do with Sasuke.

Until now, after losing his arm while dueling with Pain and managed to unlock the secret of Pain's identity, there is no more story of how Jiraiya is. The last thing we knew was Jiraiya got drowned on water. That's it. As if Masashi wanted to make all Naruto Manga fans thinking that Jiraiya no longer alive.

I think Masashi left this part as an answer to future problems. Masashi stop Jiraiya story on purpose, until he can show up from neverland and solve the puzzle. I've been hypothesize some scheme. Those scheme were:

• Jiraiya still alive and he was captured by Pain.
• Jiraiya got drowned and follow the stream, but managed to escape the grimreaper. And then, he needed some time to recover his wound first and practicing Ninjutsu with just one hand.
• This would be the worst story. Jiraiya was already in heaven (or hell would be more suitable :D ) and Naruto will make revenge to Pain.

Up till now, only those three hypothesis that came into my mind. Do you have another thought regarding this matter? Please add your thoughts in the comment board :D